This paper by Aznar-Díaz and colleagues (RIED, 2025) focuses on a question that is as classic as it is urgent in the context of MOOCs: why, if they attract thousands of learners, do so few actually reach the end? Its main contribution lies in shifting attention away from course design alone (without ignoring it) toward personal variables that are often relegated to the background: social and emotional competencies, perceived stress, expectations, and satisfaction.
Using a sample of 416 participants from a MOOC at the University of Granada, the research team combines questionnaires administered before and after the course and tests several logistic regression models to estimate which factors weigh most heavily in predicting completion. This approach is particularly relevant because, although MOOC dropout has been widely discussed, the “learner-side” factors that help explain who persists are not always examined with the same level of rigor.
The results are noteworthy both for what they confirm and for the nuances they introduce. In the intermediate models, variables such as expectations, stress, and several socioemotional dimensions are associated with course completion; however, when satisfaction is included (final model), it becomes the most robust predictor and “absorbs” part of the statistical significance of the other factors.
Put simply, rather than starting with high expectations or lower stress, what seems to make the real difference is ending the course with the perception that the MOOC was worthwhile (in terms of learning achieved, professional impact, and willingness to recommend it). Even so, socioemotional self-awareness remains a significant predictor in the full model, suggesting that the ability to recognize and regulate one’s own experience (emotions, motivation, self-reflection) can be a key driver of persistence in environments that are flexible but demand a high degree of self-regulation.
The practical takeaway from the paper is clear: if we want to improve completion rates, it is not enough to “push” learners with reminders or additional content. What is needed is the design of learning experiences that sustain satisfaction throughout the course and reduce the emotional frictions typical of autonomous learning. The article offers actionable insights (early engagement activities, communicative support, scaffolding for participation, flexible tasks), while also acknowledging important limitations: an ex post facto (non-causal) design, convenience sampling with a low response rate, and the fact that satisfaction is measured at the end of the course, which may be closely tied to completion itself (those who complete tend to report higher satisfaction).
Overall, the value of the study lies in opening up a research and design agenda: measuring and addressing the socioemotional component of MOOCs not as an “extra,” but as a core pedagogical element that helps determine learner persistence.
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How to Cite: Aznar-Díaz, I., Ayllón-Salas, P., Fernández-Martín, F. D., & Ramos-Navas-Parejo, M. (2025). Exploring predictors of success in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC). RIED-Revista Iberoamericana de Educación a Distancia, 28(1), 239–257. https://doi.org/10.5944/ried.28.1.40195
